Logical-mathematical modeling of social conflicts

Abstract

Modern society is characterized by constant changes and modernization processes, and these changes are, as a rule, ambivalent in nature: some improve, others decline.

Therefore, there is a need for analysis and modeling of various social processes. The modeling technique is interesting because it provides a systematic and holistic approach to research, allows us to obtain new knowledge and improve the parameters of the objects and processes under study.

There are many definitions of the concept “model” in the scientific literature. In its most general form, a model is defined as “a reflection of reality in the form of a set of certain symbols, signs, judgments”, “a visual image of an object, reflecting its features and characteristics”, “a theory that describes the structure and internal interaction in a system”. In principle, any method of scientific research is based on the idea of modeling - both theoretical (within which various abstract models are used) and experimental, using subject models.

In a broad sense, modeling is understood as a multifaceted method for studying any social processes. Modeling makes it possible to study complex systems, parts of which are described by various mathematical methods. The use of modeling to study social processes allows us to identify: external parameters of a particular process; patterns that are not observable in natural conditions connecting simulated phenomena with those parameters that are automatically set by the program

In today's complex geopolitical conditions, the need for the study and analysis of conflict situations is increasing, and the need for constructive resolution of conflicts is especially increasing. Modeling as one of the methods of cognition allows, on the basis of the constructed model, to predict the further development of the conflict and carry out adequate management of it, since it is extremely important to be able to foresee what consequences the development of the conflict may lead to. Urgent today are questions related to what a conflict model should be, what properties it should have, what are the capabilities and limits of application of various models, what is their effectiveness in conflict management, etc.

            Key words: mathematical modelling, game theory, social conflict, conflict management.